Schweizer Sturmforum

Current thinking is that either a strongly forced convective line or a series of separate cells will move over the region, with threat of isolated severe gusts, exceeding 25 m/s. Also thanks to the favourable LLS, moist boundary layer and considerable SREH present 0-1 km ( values exceeding 200 J/kg), one or two tornadoes are possible. The highest threat will exist around 09-12Z, across N Germany when strongest forcing and wind fields will be available.

**ESE France and extreme SW-Germany 15Z-18Z**

The main focus for a few isolated thunderstorms arises during peak heating, as weakening surface cold front approaches from the NW. As front reaches the Black Forest area, orographic enhanced lift could support a few stronger updrafts and weak LL convergence and marginal parcel layer depth superpose somewhat. Not much activity expected but enough for a small lightning area.