Schweizer Sturmforum

Europe Winter Trends: Westerly Flow and a Milder Pattern

Europe is usually not the first in a direct impact line from the tropics. But in a season with a Super El Niño paired with a positive IOD, the research above already showed an amplified low-pressure pattern over the North Atlantic or northwestern Europe.

Below is the very latest early and mid-winter pattern forecast for Europe, by ECMWF. It shows an almost exact pattern as suggested by the research above, with a high-pressure ridge from the south and a low-pressure area over the northwestern and northern parts.

An amplified westerly flow also brings more moisture into the continent, which is the driver of the precipitation forecast below. You can see above-normal precipitation over the December-February period, driven by westerly moisture transport and the low-pressure system over the north/northwest.